causal-inference

Roads to Rule, Roads to Rebel: Relational State Capacity and Conflict in Africa

State capacity is often described as one of the most important explanations of civil conflict. Yet current conceptualizations of state capacity typically focus exclusively on the state, ignoring the relational nature of armed conflict. We propose …

No Extraction Without Representation: The Ethno-Regional Oil Curse and Secessionist Conflict

A large body of literature claims that oil production increases the risk of civil war. However, a growing number of skeptics argue that the oil–conflict link is not causal, but merely an artifact of flawed research designs. This article re-evaluates …

Who Inherits the State? Colonial Rule and Postcolonial Conflict

Postulating grievance‐based mechanisms, several recent studies show that politically excluded ethnic groups are more likely to experience civil conflict. However, critics argue that endogeneity may undermine this finding since governments' decisions …