articles

Geospatial Conditional Random Fields: A Probabilistic Model for Explaining Spatial Tesselations

This paper introduces a probabilistic method for modeling (geo-)spatial tesselations. We propose a new architecture of conditional random fields in two dimensions to estiamte the determinants of spatial groupings.

Scalable Spatio-Temporal Autoregressive Models for Large Non-Gaussian Multivariate Data

Very large spatio-temporal lattice data are becoming increasingly common across a variety of disciplines. However, estimating interdependence across space, time, and outcomes in large lattice data sets remains challenging, as existing approaches are …

Accounting for Immunity in Spatial Processes: The Spatial Susceptibility Model

Political scientists frequently study spatially interdependent processes, such as policy diffusion, democratization, or the spread of violent conflict. Existing studies of such mechanisms typically rely on the spatio-temporal autoregressive (STAR) …

Roads to Rule, Roads to Rebel: Relational State Capacity and Conflict in Africa

State capacity is often described as one of the most important explanations of civil conflict. Yet current conceptualizations of state capacity typically focus exclusively on the state, ignoring the relational nature of armed conflict. We propose …

New Spatial Data on Ethnicity: Introducing SIDE

Research on ethnic politics and political violence has benefited substantially from the growing availability of cross-national, geo-coded data on ethnic settlement patterns. However, because existing datasets represent ethnic homelands using …

No Extraction Without Representation: The Ethno-Regional Oil Curse and Secessionist Conflict

A large body of literature claims that oil production increases the risk of civil war. However, a growing number of skeptics argue that the oil–conflict link is not causal, but merely an artifact of flawed research designs. This article re-evaluates …

Digital Discrimination: Political bias in Internet service provision across ethnic groups

The global expansion of the Internet is frequently associated with increased government transparency, political rights, and democracy. However, this assumption depends on marginalized groups getting access in the first place. Here we document a …

Integrating Data on Ethnicity, Geography, and Conflict: The Ethnic Power Relations Data Set Family

This article introduces the new Family of Ethnic Power Relations (EPR) data sets, version 2014, which is the latest in a series of data sets on ethnicity that have stimulated civil war research in the past decade. The EPR Family provides data on …

Who Inherits the State? Colonial Rule and Postcolonial Conflict

Postulating grievance‐based mechanisms, several recent studies show that politically excluded ethnic groups are more likely to experience civil conflict. However, critics argue that endogeneity may undermine this finding since governments' decisions …